Accuracy
Backtest results (2026-08-20)
Tested on 5 leagues × 2023-2025 seasons — 5,256 played matches. The 2025/26 evaluation season covered 1752 fixtures: 1709 evaluated and 43 skipped (insufficient match history for a new/promoted team).
| Test | Result |
|---|---|
| Beats a frequency baseline | 5/5 leagues, statistically significant |
| Calibration (within 0.05 tolerance) | 4/5 leagues |
Calibration error by league
Why we don't claim "99% accurate"
You will see other sites advertise a "99% accurate", "sure win" or "zero-risk" football prediction. These claims are lies, for a simple mathematical reason: football is not that predictable. Even a well-calibrated model on the favourite side of a 1X2 market typically lands in the 45–65% probability range for its top pick — not 99%.
A site claiming near-certainty is either (a) cherry-picking a tiny, favourable sample after the fact, (b) quietly redefining "accurate" to mean something other than "the outcome I predicted happened", or (c) simply making the number up to sell a tip. We publish 1709 real evaluation-season predictions, including the ones we got wrong, because a track record you can't fail is not a track record.
Remember: predictions here are probabilistic estimates, not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, see our responsible gambling page. 18+ only.