Garuda Lions
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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 21

Acassuso vs San Telmo

1 – 2 Full time

La Quema Stadium, Boulogne Sur Mer

Acassuso 39%
Draw 32%
San Telmo 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Acassuso vs San Telmo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Acassuso vs San Telmo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAcassusoDrawSan Telmo
Model45.3%31.8%22.8%
Market37.5%32.0%30.5%
Final39.4%32.0%28.6%
Edge+7.9%-0.2%-7.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Acassuso

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.81.
  • The market prices Acassuso below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Acassuso ↓ / San Telmo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 9% 1 15% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Acassuso and San Telmo expected goals

Acassuso 1.25
San Telmo 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.07

Acassuso and San Telmo attack and defence ratings

Acassuso

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.38 +38%

San Telmo

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Acassuso vs San Telmo: result vs prediction

Acassuso 1 – 2 San Telmo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Acassuso vs San Telmo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Acassuso 39.4% 2.54 +7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 58.9% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Acassuso39.4%
Draw32.0%
San Telmo28.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.2%
Under 2.565.8%
Both teams to scoreYes41.1%
No58.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.4%
12 (either side)68.0%
X2 (draw or away)60.6%
Handicap -1Acassuso win21.2%
Push (exactly one goal)24.2%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.6%
1-114.2%
0-013.9%

Acassuso vs San Telmo stats

Acassuso and San Telmo recent form

newest first
Acassuso LDLDDL
San Telmo DLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Acassuso and San Telmo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Acassuso record

  • They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

San Telmo record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.

Acassuso vs San Telmo head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Acassuso wins 1Draws 4San Telmo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01San TelmoAcassusoPrimera Nacional2-3
2019-12-07AcassusoSan TelmoPrimera B Metropolitana0-1
2019-04-10AcassusoSan TelmoPrimera B Metropolitana0-2
2018-10-27San TelmoAcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana0-2
2018-03-18AcassusoSan TelmoPrimera B Metropolitana1-0
2017-10-30San TelmoAcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana0-1
2017-05-21AcassusoSan TelmoPrimera B Metropolitana0-0
2016-11-04San TelmoAcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana3-0
2013-02-02San TelmoAcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Acassuso vs San Telmo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 32.0%, away 30.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 2.95 2.90
1xBet 2.38 2.89 3.00
Bet365 2.55 2.90 3.00
BetVictor 2.45 2.90 3.13
Betano 2.45 2.90 3.05
Betfair 2.38 2.90 2.90
Dafabet 2.55 2.90 3.05
Marathonbet 2.36 2.89 2.93
Pinnacle 2.52 2.92 3.22
SBO 2.53 2.72 2.58
Superbet 2.52 2.87 3.05
Unibet 2.48 2.90 3.05
William Hill 2.50 2.70 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.48 ▲ +0.28
X 2.90 ▼ -0.02
2 3.05 ▼ -0.51

10 snapshots recorded, from .