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Virsliga · Full time ·Final

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums

0 – 1 Full time

33′Kristers Volkovs
35′Shun ShibataKoyo Shigema
38′Lenny Manisaalekss tkacenko
38′marcis davis valmiers
38′Gatis Kalnins
55′Kristers VolkovsRudolfs Melkis
55′marcis davis valmiersmartins stals
63′Rodzers krasts
77′Adrians BannikovsReinars Steimaks
77′Marcis ErglisJ. Vagars
84′maksym derkachJoksts H.
84′ruslans deruzinskisDaniels radzenieks

Janis Dalins stadium, Valmiera

Valmiera / BSS 35%
Draw 26%
Tukums 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 6
47 Possession % 53
3 Corners 7
10 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
5 Saves 4
327 Accurate passes 320

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityValmiera / BSSDrawTukums
Model53.6%30.1%16.4%
Market28.4%25.3%46.3%
Final34.7%26.5%38.8%
Edge+6.3%+1.2%-7.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Tukums

  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Valmiera / BSS ↓ / Tukums → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 1 17% 13% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums expected goals

Valmiera / BSS 1.39
Tukums 0.65

Total expected goals: 2.04

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums attack and defence ratings

Valmiera / BSS

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Tukums

Attack 0.54 -46%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums: result vs prediction

Valmiera / BSS 0 – 1 Tukums

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Final fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tukums 38.8% 2.58 -7.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score No 62.8% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 83.6% 1.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Valmiera / BSS34.7%
Draw26.5%
Tukums38.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.4%
Under 2.566.6%
Both teams to scoreYes37.2%
No62.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.2%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)65.3%
Handicap -1Tukums win4.6%
Push (exactly one goal)11.8%
Loss83.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.9%
0-014.2%
1-112.9%

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums stats

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums recent form

newest first
Valmiera / BSS L
Tukums WLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tukums record

  • They have won 6 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 37 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Valmiera / BSS wins 1Draws 5Tukums wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-11-11TukumsValmiera / BSSVirsliga1-0
2024-11-09Valmiera / BSSTukumsVirsliga2-3
2024-08-24TukumsValmiera / BSSVirsliga3-2
2024-07-14TukumsValmiera / BSSCup2-3
2024-06-14Valmiera / BSSTukumsVirsliga6-1
2024-04-27TukumsValmiera / BSSVirsliga1-2
2023-10-01TukumsValmiera / BSSVirsliga3-2
2023-08-21Valmiera / BSSTukumsCup0-1
2023-07-07Valmiera / BSSTukumsVirsliga6-0
2023-05-17TukumsValmiera / BSSVirsliga0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 25.3%, away 46.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.24 3.52 1.94
Bet365 3.10 3.60 1.95
BetVictor 3.20 3.70 2.00
Betano 3.15 3.55 1.95
Betfair 3.00 3.75 1.95
Marathonbet 3.16 3.52 1.92
Pinnacle 3.33 3.63 2.02
William Hill 3.20 3.40 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.18 ▲ +0.08
X 3.58 ▼ -0.02
2 1.95 —

4 snapshots recorded, from .