Drogheda United
vs
UCD
Garuda Lions Prediction: Drogheda United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Drogheda United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Drogheda United vs UCD overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Drogheda United vs UCD
| Probability | Drogheda United | Draw | UCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 28.3% | 30.1% |
| Market | 53.7% | 23.9% | 22.4% |
| Final | 50.7% | 25.0% | 24.3% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +1.1% | +1.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (our 50.7% × 1.81 − 1).
Drogheda United vs UCD match preview
Drogheda United holds a 51% probability of winning against UCD, with a draw at 25% and UCD at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Expected goals are set at 1.45 for Drogheda United and 1.20 for UCD, indicating a competitive matchup.
Drogheda United's recent form shows a mixed bag with three wins and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, UCD's recent form is not available. Historically, Drogheda United has dominated their last ten encounters with UCD, securing seven wins, two draws, and only one loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Drogheda United and UCD expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Drogheda United and UCD attack and defence ratings
Drogheda United
UCD
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Drogheda United vs UCD markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Drogheda United | 50.7% | 1.97 | -3.0% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Drogheda United | 50.7% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| UCD | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Drogheda United win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 58.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Drogheda United vs UCD stats
Drogheda United and UCD recent form
| Drogheda United |
WLWLLW |
| UCD |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Drogheda United and UCD season so far
Drogheda United record
- They have won 10 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Drogheda United vs UCD head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Drogheda United | UCD | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-01 | Drogheda United | UCD | Premier Division | 3-0 |
| 2023-07-14 | UCD | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 1-3 |
| 2023-05-26 | Drogheda United | UCD | Premier Division | 3-1 |
| 2023-03-10 | UCD | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-21 | UCD | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-01 | Drogheda United | UCD | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-15 | UCD | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 0-2 |
| 2022-03-04 | Drogheda United | UCD | Premier Division | 4-2 |
| 2020-09-18 | UCD | Drogheda United | First Division | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Drogheda United vs UCD odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.0%, draw 23.9%, away 22.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.88 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.95 | 3.97 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.47 | 4.02 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .