Garuda Lions
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Svenska Cupen · Full time ·Final

Friska Viljor vs Sirius

0 – 2 Full time

Friska Viljor 10%
Draw 13%
Sirius 76%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Friska Viljor vs Sirius overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Friska Viljor vs Sirius

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFriska ViljorDrawSirius
Model22.0%21.3%56.7%
Market6.6%10.3%83.0%
Final10.5%13.1%76.4%
Edge+15.4%+11.0%-26.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Sirius

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Friska Viljor ↓ / Sirius → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 6% 6% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Friska Viljor and Sirius expected goals

Friska Viljor 1.41
Sirius 2.29

Total expected goals: 3.70

Friska Viljor and Sirius attack and defence ratings

Friska Viljor

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Sirius

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Friska Viljor vs Sirius: result vs prediction

Friska Viljor 0 – 2 Sirius

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Final fixtures

Svenska Cupen

Before and after this match

Friska Viljor vs Sirius markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sirius 76.4% 1.31 -26.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.5% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.7% 1.46 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 89.5% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.3% 2.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Friska Viljor10.5%
Draw13.1%
Sirius76.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.5%
Under 2.528.5%
Both teams to scoreYes68.7%
No31.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)23.6%
12 (either side)86.9%
X2 (draw or away)89.5%
Handicap -1Sirius win36.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss43.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.1%
1-18.8%
1-37.0%

Friska Viljor vs Sirius stats

Friska Viljor and Sirius recent form

newest first
Friska Viljor WD
Sirius LLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Friska Viljor vs Sirius head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Friska Viljor vs Sirius odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 6.6%, draw 10.3%, away 83.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 14.00 8.60 1.12
Dafabet 15.00 9.20 1.12
Unibet 14.00 9.00 1.08

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.