Jamaica
vs
Mexico
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mexico
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Jamaica vs Mexico overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jamaica vs Mexico
| Probability | Jamaica | Draw | Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 33.7% | 42.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.1% | 33.7% | 42.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mexico
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Jamaica vs Mexico match preview
In the upcoming CONCACAF Nations League match, Jamaica faces Mexico on November 9, 2026. According to our model, Mexico holds a 42% probability of winning, while Jamaica's chances stand at 24%, with a draw at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Mexico, occurring with a 15% likelihood. Jamaica's expected goals are 0.79, compared to Mexico's 1.13.
Recent form shows Jamaica with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-L-W, while Mexico has been more consistent, winning six consecutive matches following a loss. In their last encounter, Mexico emerged victorious, with Jamaica yet to secure a win against them. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 30%, and both teams scoring is projected at 38%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jamaica and Mexico expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
Jamaica and Mexico attack and defence ratings
Jamaica
Mexico
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Jamaica vs Mexico markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mexico | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jamaica | 24.1% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Mexico | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.1% |
| No | 61.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mexico win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.1% |
| 0-1 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Jamaica vs Mexico stats
Jamaica vs Mexico head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-23 | Mexico | Jamaica | Copa America | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.