Atletico-MG
vs
Boca Juniors
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boca Juniors
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.9% | 30.9% | 46.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.9% | 30.9% | 46.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors match preview
Atletico-MG faces Boca Juniors in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana with a kickoff scheduled for November 21, 2026. According to our model, Atletico-MG has a 23% chance of winning, while Boca Juniors holds a 46% probability of victory, with a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Boca Juniors, occurring at a rate of 14%.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the two teams; Atletico-MG has recorded six consecutive matches without a win (D-L-L-L-L-L), while Boca Juniors boasts five wins in their last six outings (W-W-W-W-W-L). Expected goals suggest Atletico-MG may struggle offensively, with an expected goal tally of 0.85 compared to Boca Juniors' 1.32.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Boca Juniors
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 22.9% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Boca Juniors | 46.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors stats
Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors recent form
| Atletico-MG |
DLLLLL |
| Boca Juniors |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.