Mirassol
vs
Atletico-MG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mirassol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mirassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Mirassol | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 30.3% | 22.0% |
| Market | 48.4% | 26.4% | 25.2% |
| Final | 48.2% | 27.4% | 24.4% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +1.0% | -0.8% |
Why Mirassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 48.2% × 2.01 − 1).
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG match preview
Mirassol enters this match against Atletico-MG with a probability of 47% to win, while Atletico-MG has a 25% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Mirassol, with an expected goals tally of 1.36 for Mirassol and 0.84 for Atletico-MG. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Mirassol recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Atletico-MG has struggled significantly, with six consecutive matches without a win.
In their last three encounters, Mirassol has not managed to secure a victory against Atletico-MG, recording two losses and one draw. The model suggests a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% likelihood that both teams will score. Given these statistics, the matchup appears to favor Mirassol, though Atletico-MG will be looking to break their poor run.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Mirassol and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.2% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 48.2% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Atletico-MG | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirassol win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG stats
Mirassol and Atletico-MG recent form
| Mirassol |
WLDWLD |
| Atletico-MG |
DLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mirassol and Atletico-MG season so far
Mirassol record
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Atletico-MG | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Atletico-MG | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Mirassol | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 26.4%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.66 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.62 | 3.89 |
| SBO | 1.97 | 3.26 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .