Chapecoense-sc
vs
Mirassol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mirassol
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mirassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
| Probability | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 29.7% | 42.3% |
| Market | 31.0% | 26.6% | 42.3% |
| Final | 30.3% | 27.4% | 42.3% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +0.8% | -0.0% |
Why Mirassol
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.26 − 1).
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol match preview
Chapecoense-sc faces Mirassol in a Brazil Serie A clash with kickoff set for November 3, 2026. According to our model, Chapecoense-sc has a 31% chance of winning, while Mirassol is favored at 42%, with a 27% probability for a draw. The expected goals for Chapecoense-sc is 1.15 compared to Mirassol's 1.32. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Chapecoense-sc struggling with one win in their last six matches (W-L-L-L-D-L), while Mirassol has been more consistent, recording two wins in their last six (D-W-L-D-W-D). The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, and both teams are projected to score 51% of the time. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.0% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 30.3% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Mirassol | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirassol win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol stats
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol recent form
| Chapecoense-sc |
LWLLLD |
| Mirassol |
DWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol season so far
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Mirassol record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Mirassol | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 26.6%, away 42.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.61 | 2.26 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.19 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .