RB Bragantino
vs
Santos
Garuda Lions Prediction: RB Bragantino
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — RB Bragantino is the favourite, not a value bet.
RB Bragantino vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RB Bragantino vs Santos
| Probability | RB Bragantino | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 27.9% | 27.1% |
| Market | 47.1% | 25.3% | 27.6% |
| Final | 46.6% | 26.0% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.6% | -0.1% |
Why RB Bragantino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.13.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 46.6% × 2.06 − 1).
RB Bragantino vs Santos match preview
RB Bragantino faces Santos in a match where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with a 47% chance of victory compared to 27% for Santos and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.52 for Bragantino and 1.13 for Santos. The model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, RB Bragantino has recorded one win, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Santos has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RB Bragantino and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
RB Bragantino and Santos attack and defence ratings
RB Bragantino
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
RB Bragantino vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 46.6% | 2.15 | -0.5% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 46.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Santos | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
RB Bragantino vs Santos stats
RB Bragantino and Santos recent form
| RB Bragantino |
WLDWDL |
| Santos |
DDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RB Bragantino and Santos season so far
RB Bragantino record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
RB Bragantino vs Santos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Santos | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | RB Bragantino | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Santos | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
RB Bragantino vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 25.3%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.84 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.72 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.76 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .