Flamengo
vs
Gremio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Flamengo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Flamengo vs Gremio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Gremio
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.9% | 22.0% | 11.1% |
| Market | 78.3% | 14.5% | 7.2% |
| Final | 75.5% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +1.9% | +1.0% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 75.5% × 1.22 − 1).
Flamengo vs Gremio match preview
Flamengo enters this match against Gremio with a strong probability of winning at 76%, while Gremio's chances stand at just 8%. The expected goals for Flamengo are 1.89, significantly higher than Gremio's 0.63, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play. Recent form shows Flamengo with three wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Gremio has struggled with one win, three draws, and two losses.
Historically, Flamengo has performed well against Gremio, winning two of their last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Flamengo, which aligns with the expectation of over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 40%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Gremio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Flamengo and Gremio attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Gremio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Gremio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 75.5% | 1.33 | -2.9% | 1.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 75.5% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Gremio | 8.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
Flamengo vs Gremio stats
Flamengo and Gremio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Gremio season so far
Flamengo record
- They have won 21 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Gremio | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Flamengo | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Gremio | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Gremio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.3%, draw 14.5%, away 7.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 7.32 | 13.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 6.40 | 13.50 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.20 | 6.80 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 6.65 | 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 7.30 | 12.34 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .