Vasco DA Gama
vs
Flamengo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Flamengo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 35.5% | 33.5% |
| Market | 26.9% | 26.9% | 46.2% |
| Final | 27.9% | 29.0% | 43.0% |
| Edge | +1.0% | +2.2% | -3.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.10 − 1).
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo match preview
Vasco DA Gama faces Flamengo in a Brazil Serie A match with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Vasco DA Gama has a 28% chance of winning, while Flamengo is favored at 43%, with a 29% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 14%. Both teams are expected to have similar offensive outputs, with expected goals of 0.88 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.92 for Flamengo.
Recent form shows Vasco DA Gama with two losses followed by three matches without defeat, while Flamengo has been more consistent, with three wins and three draws in their last six matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Vasco DA Gama has not secured a win, resulting in three draws against Flamengo. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 43.0% | 2.32 | -3.2% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 27.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Flamengo | 43.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 12.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 0-1 | 13.9% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo stats
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
LLWDWW |
| Flamengo |
DWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo season so far
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Flamengo record
- They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Flamengo | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Flamengo | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Vasco DA Gama | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 26.9%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.55 | 3.53 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.42 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .