Flamengo
vs
Atletico-MG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Flamengo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 28.5% | 14.8% |
| Market | 71.8% | 17.9% | 10.2% |
| Final | 68.1% | 20.6% | 11.4% |
| Edge | -3.8% | +2.6% | +1.1% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.64.
Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 68.1% × 1.33 − 1).
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG match preview
Flamengo faces Atletico-MG in a Brazil Serie A clash with Flamengo holding a 66% probability of winning, while Atletico-MG has a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Flamengo, with an expected goals tally of 1.52 for Flamengo compared to 0.78 for Atletico-MG.
Both teams come into this match with solid recent form; Flamengo has recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Atletico-MG has also secured three wins and two draws. In their last five head-to-head encounters, Flamengo has the upper hand with three victories, one draw, and one win for Atletico-MG. The model indicates a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG team news
Flamengo news
- Danilo — inactive
- Evertton Araujo — thigh injury
- G. de Arrascaeta — wrist injury
Atletico-MG news
- Everson — foot injury
- Fred — injury
- Gustavo Scarpa — muscle injury
- M. Cassierra — injury
- Ruan Tressoldi — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Flamengo and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 68.1% | 1.47 | -3.8% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 68.1% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Atletico-MG | 11.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.8% |
| No | 62.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 30.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.5% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.6% |
| 2-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG stats
Flamengo and Atletico-MG recent form
| Flamengo |
DWDWDW |
| Atletico-MG |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG season so far
Flamengo record
- They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico-MG | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 0-4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Atletico-MG | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Atletico-MG | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Flamengo | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Flamengo | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.9%, draw 17.9%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.56 | 9.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.20 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 5.58 | 9.16 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 4.65 | 6.76 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .