Atletico Torque
vs
Atletico-MG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Torque
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Atletico Torque | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 25.2% | 26.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.5% | 25.2% | 26.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico Torque
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG match preview
Atletico Torque faces Atletico-MG in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana with kickoff scheduled for October 21, 2026. According to our model, Atletico Torque has a 46% probability of winning, while Atletico-MG stands at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Atletico Torque, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Atletico Torque is 1.64, compared to 1.24 for Atletico-MG.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Torque has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Atletico-MG has two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same timeframe. Our model indicates a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Atletico Torque
Atletico-MG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 48.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Atletico-MG | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG stats
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG recent form
| Atletico Torque |
LDLWLW |
| Atletico-MG |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG season so far
Atletico Torque record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.