CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2026-10-21T22:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Semi-finals

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG

2 – 0 Full time

40′			Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
53′			Pablo Siles
58′			Alan Franco
59′			Pablo SilesAlexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero
65′			Kevin CastañoMamady Cisse
65′			Reinier Jesus CarvalhoNatanael Moreira Milouski
65′			Victor Hugo Gomes SilvaVitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
70′			Facundo SilveraEzequiel Busquets
70′			Franco PizzichilloLuka Andrade
75′			Alan Franco
79′			Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteAlexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa
82′			Natanael Moreira Milouski
82′			Tomás CuelloIgor Gomes
82′			Salomón RodríguezJuan Quintana
82′			Diogo GuzmánSebastián Cáceres Carranza
89′			Kevin Isaias·Silva
90′			Gary Kagelmacher

Estadio Centenario, MontevideoReferee: Cristian Garay

Atletico Torque

31%

Draw

28%

Atletico-MG

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

31	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	2
69	Possession %	31
9	Corners	1
13	Fouls	11
2	Saves	4
463	Accurate passes	216

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Atletico Torque	Draw	Atletico-MG
Model	33.6%	27.6%	38.9%
Market	30.1%	28.7%	41.2%
Final	31.0%	28.4%	40.6%
Edge	+0.9%	-0.3%	-0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico-MG

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

78%

3+ goals

53%

No goals

Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG expected goals

Atletico Torque

1.35

Atletico-MG

1.46

Total expected goals: 2.81

Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings

Atletico Torque

Attack

1.14 +14%

Defence

1.13 +13%

Atletico-MG

Attack

1.35 +35%

Defence

0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: result vs prediction

Atletico Torque 2 – 0 Atletico-MG

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Semi-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama — match page · 2026-10-14
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats · 2026-10-14
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors — team news & stats · 2026-10-21

Before and after this match

Atletico Torque, previous: Albion FC v Atletico Torque analysis
Atletico Torque, next: Atletico Torque v Cerro analysis
Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico-MG v Coritiba analysis
Atletico-MG, next: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: odds and pick

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Atletico-MG	40.6%	2.46	-0.6%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53.2%	1.88	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	58.0%	1.72	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	71.6%	1.40	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	61.1%	1.64	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Atletico Torque	31.0%
	Draw	28.4%
	Atletico-MG	40.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53.2%
	Under 2.5	46.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	58.0%
	No	42.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.4%
	12 (either side)	71.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	69.0%
Handicap -1	Atletico-MG win	19.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.7%
	Loss	61.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.1%
	1-2	8.7%
	2-1	8.0%

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG stats

Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG recent form

newest first

Atletico Torque	LLWLDL
Atletico-MG	WWWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Torque record

They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico-MG record

They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Atletico Torque wins 0Draws 1Atletico-MG wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-10-14	Atletico-MG	Atletico Torque	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 28.7%, away 41.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.35	3.39	2.34
Bet365	3.20	3.30	2.30
Betano	3.45	3.35	2.30
Betfair	3.00	3.30	2.30
Dafabet	3.15	3.40	2.35
Marathonbet	3.18	3.22	2.22
Pinnacle	3.15	3.33	2.38
SBO	2.81	3.17	2.28
William Hill	2.80	3.25	2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.15 ▲ +0.42

X 3.30 ▼ -0.14

2 2.30 ▼ -0.20

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-15T08:10:01Z.