Boca Juniors
vs
Vasco DA Gama
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boca Juniors
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 28.5% | 23.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.5% | 28.5% | 23.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama match preview
Boca Juniors will host Vasco DA Gama in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on October 14, 2026. The model gives Boca Juniors a 42% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 30% and Vasco DA Gama at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Boca Juniors, with an 11% probability. Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Boca Juniors recording four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Vasco DA Gama has achieved four wins, one draw, and one loss.
In terms of expected goals, Boca Juniors stands at 1.34 compared to Vasco DA Gama's 1.05. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 43%, and there is a 49% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate reliability in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 48.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Boca Juniors |
WWWDWW |
| Vasco DA Gama |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama season so far
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.