Boca Juniors
vs
Vasco DA Gama
0 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Milton Delgado | ||
| 25′ | Adson | ||
| 44′ | Adson | ||
| 51′ | Santiago Sosa | ||
| 58′ | Williams AlarcónSebastián Villa | ||
| 63′ | Andrés Gómez | ||
| 64′ | Andrés Gómez | ||
| 67′ | Carlos PalaciosMiguel Merentiel | ||
| 68′ | AdsonTchê Tchê | ||
| 78′ | Bruno Duarte Da SilvaBrenner | ||
| 78′ | Santiago SosaGabriel Pereira | ||
| 82′ | Alan LescanoRamon Rique Santos De Souza Barros | ||
| 82′ | Paulo HenriqueJose Luis Rodriguez | ||
| 86′ | Santiago AscacibarÁngel Romero |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 445 | Accurate passes | 285 |
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.7% | 29.6% | 25.7% |
| Market | 50.4% | 29.8% | 19.8% |
| Final | 49.0% | 29.8% | 21.2% |
| Edge | -1.4% | -0.0% | +1.5% |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.00.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction
Boca Juniors 0 – 1 Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 49.0% | 2.04 | -1.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 49.0% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.6% |
| No | 51.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Boca Juniors |
DWWWDW |
| Vasco DA Gama |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama going into this match
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.4%, draw 29.8%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.29 | 5.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.12 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.21 | 4.96 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .