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CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Full time ·Semi-finals

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque

3 – 0 Full time

37′Reinier Jesus Carvalho
42′Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
46′Pablo Siles
57′Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
63′Reinier Jesus CarvalhoThiago Borbas
63′Victor Hugo Gomes SilvaIgor Gomes
77′Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteMamady Cisse
80′Franco PizzichilloEzequiel Busquets
80′Pablo SilesDiogo Guzmán
80′Thiago Borbas
81′E. ObregónLuka Andrade
85′Tomás CuelloAlan Minda
85′Vitor Fernandes Chaves TeixeiraVitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
88′Salomón RodríguezAlexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero
90′Luka Andrade

Arena MRV, Bello HarisantaReferee: Carlos Betancur

Atletico-MG 64%
Draw 22%
Atletico Torque 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 1
65 Possession % 35
6 Corners 4
8 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
1 Saves 4
611 Accurate passes 265

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico-MGDrawAtletico Torque
Model49.8%25.7%24.4%
Market68.5%21.1%10.4%
Final63.8%22.3%13.9%
Edge-4.7%+1.2%+3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico-MG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico-MG ↓ / Atletico Torqu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque expected goals

Atletico-MG 1.66
Atletico Torque 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.87

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque attack and defence ratings

Atletico-MG

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Atletico Torque

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque: result vs prediction

Atletico-MG 3 – 0 Atletico Torque

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Semi-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Before and after this match

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico-MG 63.8% 1.57 -4.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.0% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.2% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.1% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.3% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico-MG63.8%
Draw22.3%
Atletico Torque13.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
Both teams to scoreYes58.2%
No41.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.1%
12 (either side)77.7%
X2 (draw or away)36.2%
Handicap -1Atletico-MG win25.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss53.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
2-19.7%
1-08.3%

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque stats

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque recent form

newest first
Atletico-MG WDWDWW
Atletico Torque WLDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico-MG record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Atletico Torque record

  • They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.5%, draw 21.1%, away 10.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.43 4.66 9.30
Bet365 1.40 4.20 9.50
BetVictor 1.36 4.50 9.00
Betano 1.44 4.40 9.75
Betfair 1.33 4.50 9.00
Dafabet 1.42 4.60 8.40
Marathonbet 1.37 4.35 8.70
Pinnacle 1.37 4.71 9.51
SBO 1.36 4.02 7.34
William Hill 1.36 4.20 8.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.37 ▼ -0.06
X 4.45 ▲ +0.25
2 9.00 ▲ +1.40

14 snapshots recorded, from .