Atletico-MG
vs
Atletico Torque
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico-MG
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Atletico Torque |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 24.7% | 24.4% |
| Market | 65.4% | 22.3% | 12.3% |
| Final | 61.8% | 22.9% | 15.3% |
| Edge | -14.6% | +2.5% | +12.1% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque match preview
Atletico-MG will face Atletico Torque in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on October 14, 2026. The model assigns a 44% probability of a win for Atletico-MG, while a draw is at 26% and Atletico Torque at 30%. The expected goals for Atletico-MG stand at 1.70, compared to Atletico Torque's 1.39, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form shows Atletico-MG with mixed results, recording a draw, a loss, and two wins in their last six matches. Atletico Torque has also been inconsistent, with a draw, a loss, and two wins in their recent outings. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Atletico-MG, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Atletico Torque
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 61.8% | 1.62 | -14.6% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 61.8% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Atletico Torque | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque stats
Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque recent form
| Atletico-MG |
DWDLWW |
| Atletico Torque |
LDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Atletico Torque season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Atletico Torque record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Torque odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 22.3%, away 12.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.37 | 8.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.15 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.25 | 7.48 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.84 | 6.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .