Atletico-MG
vs
Coritiba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico-MG
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Coritiba
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.6% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Market | 59.9% | 23.1% | 17.1% |
| Final | 65.0% | 20.5% | 14.5% |
| Edge | +20.7% | -10.4% | -10.3% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +20.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba match preview
Atletico-MG hosts Coritiba in a Brazil Serie A clash with a strong probability of victory for the home side, estimated at 68%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 3-0, with Atletico-MG expected to generate 3.05 expected goals compared to Coritiba's 0.89. Additionally, there is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score 57% of the time.
Recent form shows Atletico-MG with a mixed record of two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Coritiba has struggled, recording one win, three losses, and one draw in the same period. In their last head-to-head encounter, Coritiba secured a victory against Atletico-MG. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate confidence in the forecast.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba team news
Atletico-MG news
- A. Franco — yellow cards
- Everson — foot injury
- Fred — injury
- Gustavo Scarpa — muscle injury
- M. Cassierra — injury
- Ruan Tressoldi — muscle injury
Coritiba news
- Lucas Ronier — knee injury
- Lucas Taverna — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Atletico-MG and Coritiba attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 65.0% | 1.54 | +20.7% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 65.0% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Coritiba | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 62.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 19.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba stats
Atletico-MG and Coritiba recent form
| Atletico-MG |
WWDWDW |
| Coritiba |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Atletico-MG | Coritiba | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-20 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-14 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-24 | Atletico-MG | Coritiba | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2020-12-26 | Atletico-MG | Coritiba | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2020-09-06 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2017-11-19 | Atletico-MG | Coritiba | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2017-07-30 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2016-11-06 | Coritiba | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.4%, draw 22.8%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.22 | 5.56 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.10 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.07 | 5.60 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .