Bahia
vs
Flamengo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Bahia vs Flamengo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bahia vs Flamengo
| Probability | Bahia | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.0% | 32.2% | 34.8% |
| Market | 28.9% | 25.8% | 45.3% |
| Final | 30.0% | 27.4% | 42.6% |
| Edge | +4.0% | +6.4% | -10.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bahia vs Flamengo match preview
Bahia faces Flamengo in a Brazil Serie A clash with the kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Bahia has a 30% chance of winning, while Flamengo is favored with a 43% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 49%, and the chances of over 2.5 goals stand at 42%. The expected goals for Bahia are 1.16, slightly lower than Flamengo's 1.20.
In terms of recent form, Bahia has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Flamengo remains strong with four wins and two draws in the same period. Historically, in their last three encounters, Bahia has secured one victory, while Flamengo has won twice. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Bahia and Flamengo team news
Bahia news
- Leo Vieira — knee injury
Flamengo news
- Ayrton Lucas — thigh injury
- Danilo — inactive
- Evertton Araujo — thigh injury
- G. de Arrascaeta — wrist injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bahia and Flamengo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Bahia and Flamengo attack and defence ratings
Bahia
Flamengo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bahia vs Flamengo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 42.6% | 2.35 | -10.5% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 30.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Flamengo | 42.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.7% |
| No | 55.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 14.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Bahia vs Flamengo stats
Bahia and Flamengo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bahia and Flamengo season so far
Bahia record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo record
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Flamengo | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Bahia | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Flamengo | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bahia vs Flamengo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 25.8%, away 45.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.22 | 3.68 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24 | 3.75 | 2.11 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .