Estudiantes L.P.
vs
Flamengo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo
| Probability | Estudiantes L.P. | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 30.9% | 30.5% |
| Market | 27.4% | 31.1% | 41.5% |
| Final | 30.2% | 31.0% | 38.7% |
| Edge | +11.2% | -0.2% | -11.0% |
Why Flamengo
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo match preview
Estudiantes L.P. faces Flamengo in the CONMEBOL Libertadores with model probabilities indicating a competitive match. Estudiantes L.P. holds a 30% chance of winning, while Flamengo is slightly favored at 39%, with a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Flamengo, occurring at a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest Estudiantes L.P. will score 1.01, while Flamengo is projected to net 1.19.
In terms of recent form, Estudiantes L.P. has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, whereas Flamengo has been in strong form with four consecutive wins and one draw. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Estudiantes L.P. with one win, one draw, and Flamengo with two wins, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo attack and defence ratings
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 38.7% | 2.58 | -11.0% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 30.2% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Flamengo | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 12.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 69.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo stats
Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo recent form
| Estudiantes L.P. |
WLLWWD |
| Flamengo |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estudiantes L.P. and Flamengo season so far
Estudiantes L.P. record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.4%, draw 31.1%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.48 | 3.05 | 2.34 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 2.96 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 3.49 | 2.95 | 2.33 |
| SBO | 3.17 | 2.78 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .