Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Flamengo
vs
Fluminense
1 – 0 Full time
| 31′ | Erick Pulgar | ||
| 39′ | Luciano Acosta | ||
| 49′ | Saúl Ñíguez | ||
| 57′ | Agustín Canobbio | ||
| 59′ | Yeferson Soteldo | ||
| 60′ | Luciano AcostaPaulo Henrique Chagas de Lima | ||
| 60′ | Yeferson SoteldoKevin Serna | ||
| 64′ | PedroBruno Henrique | ||
| 64′ | Saúl ÑíguezJoaquín Freitas | ||
| 65′ | Jorge Carrascal | ||
| 69′ | Rodrigo CastilloHulk | ||
| 69′ | Agustín CanobbioJefferson David Savarino Quintero | ||
| 78′ | Matheus Martinelli LimaWesley Natã de Freitas Prado | ||
| 79′ | Samuel LinoNicolas De la Cruz | ||
| 79′ | Lucas PaquetáGonzalo Plata | ||
| 83′ | Ignácio da Silva Oliveira | ||
| 87′ | Guilherme Arana | ||
| 90′ | Jorge CarrascalDanilo Luiz da Silva | ||
| 90′ | Joaquín Freitas |
Flamengo
61%
Draw
23%
Fluminense
16%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Saves | 5 |
| 378 | Accurate passes | 498 |
Flamengo vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Fluminense
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 25.8% | 22.9% |
| Market | 64.7% | 21.7% | 13.6% |
| Final | 61.4% | 22.7% | 15.9% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +1.0% | +2.3% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.06.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Flamengo and Fluminense expected goals
Flamengo
1.87
Fluminense
1.06
Total expected goals: 2.93
Flamengo and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Attack
1.33 +33%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Fluminense
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
0.92 -8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flamengo vs Fluminense: result vs prediction
Flamengo 1 – 0 Fluminense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 61.4% | 1.63 | -3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 61.4% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Fluminense | 15.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Flamengo vs Fluminense stats
Flamengo and Fluminense recent form
| Flamengo |
DWDWWW |
| Fluminense |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Fluminense going into this match
Flamengo record
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Flamengo wins
3Draws
3Fluminense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Carioca - 1 | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Carioca - 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Flamengo | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Flamengo | Fluminense | Carioca - 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Carioca - 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Carioca - 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-17 | Flamengo | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-06-23 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.7%, draw 21.7%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.35 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 6.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.63 | 7.55 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.45 ▲ +0.11
X
4.33 ▼ -0.47
2
6.90 ▼ -1.70
14 snapshots recorded, from .