Flamengo
vs
Fluminense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Flamengo vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Fluminense
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 25.9% | 22.9% |
| Market | 62.5% | 21.8% | 15.6% |
| Final | 59.7% | 22.8% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -11.3% | +4.0% | +7.3% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.11.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Flamengo vs Fluminense match preview
Flamengo enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 64%, while Fluminense has a 14% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Flamengo, with an expected goals tally of 1.74 for Flamengo and 1.11 for Fluminense. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 54%, and both teams scoring is projected at 56%.
Recent form indicates that Flamengo has been consistent, with a record of D-W-D-W-W-W, while Fluminense has also performed well, boasting a record of W-W-W-L-W-W. In their last three encounters, Flamengo has won twice, with Fluminense winning once. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Flamengo and Fluminense team news
Flamengo news
- Ayrton Lucas — thigh injury
- Evertton Araujo — thigh injury
- G. Varela — inactive
- G. de Arrascaeta — wrist injury
- Jorginho — suspended
- Leo Ortiz — inactive
Fluminense news
- Alisson — hip injury
- G. Cano — hamstring injury
- John Kennedy — knee injury
- Matheus Reis — knee injury
- Rene — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Flamengo and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 59.7% | 1.67 | -11.3% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 59.7% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Fluminense | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Flamengo vs Fluminense stats
Flamengo and Fluminense recent form
| Flamengo |
DWDWWW |
| Fluminense |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Fluminense season so far
Flamengo record
- They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Fluminense | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Flamengo | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 21.8%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.34 | 6.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.29 | 6.49 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .