Brazil Serie A · 2026-10-09T00:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 29

Fluminense vs Coritiba

4 – 0 Full time

24′			JacyRodrigo Moledo
30′			Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
49′			Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
62′			Breno LopesFabinho
62′			Pedro RochaPaulo Roberto
62′			Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaLuciano Acosta
65′			Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
74′			Nicolas FonsecaTinga
74′			Fabricio BustosVini Paulista
79′			Hércules Pereira do NascimentoOtávio Henrique Passos Santos
79′			Claudio Rodrigues GomesSamuel Xavier Brito
79′			Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroRodrigo Castillo
86′			Bruno Melo
89′			HulkWesley Natã de Freitas Prado
90′			Luciano Acosta

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Fluminense

66%

Draw

21%

Coritiba

13%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

22	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	0
68	Possession %	32
3	Corners	2
9	Fouls	8
2	Offsides	1
0	Saves	6
809	Accurate passes	340

Fluminense vs Coritiba overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Coritiba

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Fluminense	Draw	Coritiba
Model	71.8%	16.6%	11.6%
Market	64.0%	22.1%	13.9%
Final	65.9%	20.7%	13.3%
Edge	+7.8%	-5.5%	-2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Fluminense

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Fluminense below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

90%

3+ goals

73%

No goals

Fluminense and Coritiba expected goals

Fluminense

2.74

Coritiba

1.08

Total expected goals: 3.82

Fluminense and Coritiba attack and defence ratings

Fluminense

Attack

1.21 +21%

Defence

0.94 -6%

Coritiba

Attack

1.07 +7%

Defence

1.48 +48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fluminense vs Coritiba: result vs prediction

Fluminense 4 – 0 Coritiba

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Internacional v Corinthians — match page · 2026-10-07
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol · 2026-10-07
Remo v Gremio — match page · 2026-10-07
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — team news & stats · 2026-10-07
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats · 2026-10-07
Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo — match page · 2026-10-08
Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats · 2026-10-08
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG · 2026-10-08

Before and after this match

Fluminense, previous: Corinthians vs Fluminense prediction
Fluminense, next: Flamengo vs Fluminense prediction
Coritiba, previous: Vasco DA Gama – Coritiba, 2026-09-19
Coritiba, next: Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction

Fluminense vs Coritiba markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Fluminense	65.9%	1.52	+7.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73.5%	1.36	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	62.3%	1.61	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.7%	1.15	—	—
Handicap -1	Fluminense win	51.8%	1.93	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Fluminense	65.9%
	Draw	20.7%
	Coritiba	13.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73.5%
	Under 2.5	26.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	62.3%
	No	37.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.7%
	12 (either side)	79.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	34.1%
Handicap -1	Fluminense win	51.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.9%
	Loss	28.3%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	8.9%
	2-0	8.3%
	3-1	8.1%

Fluminense vs Coritiba stats

Fluminense and Coritiba recent form

newest first

Fluminense	WWLWWD
Coritiba	LDLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fluminense and Coritiba going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fluminense record

They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coritiba record

They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fluminense vs Coritiba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Fluminense wins 4Draws 2Coritiba wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-04	Coritiba	Fluminense	Brazil Serie A	1-1
2023-11-26	Fluminense	Coritiba	Serie A	2-1
2023-07-24	Coritiba	Fluminense	Serie A	2-0
2022-08-20	Fluminense	Coritiba	Serie A	5-2
2022-05-01	Coritiba	Fluminense	Serie A	3-2
2021-01-20	Coritiba	Fluminense	Serie A	3-3
2020-09-28	Fluminense	Coritiba	Serie A	4-0
2017-11-09	Fluminense	Coritiba	Serie A	2-2
2017-07-16	Coritiba	Fluminense	Serie A	1-2
2016-10-23	Coritiba	Fluminense	Serie A	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fluminense vs Coritiba odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 22.1%, away 13.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.51	4.34	6.76
Bet365	1.48	4.20	7.50
BetVictor	1.45	4.33	7.00
Betano	1.52	4.45	7.20
Betfair	1.47	4.20	6.00
Dafabet	1.49	4.50	6.80
Marathonbet	1.46	4.20	6.55
Pinnacle	1.48	4.49	6.98
SBO	1.43	3.74	5.61
William Hill	1.44	4.00	6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.48 ▼ -0.03

X 4.27 ▲ +0.47

2 6.78 ▲ +0.28

44 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-17T08:10:02Z.