Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 29
Cruzeiro
vs
Sao Paulo
2 – 0 Full time
| 21′ | Wendell | ||
| 24′ | Gabriel Rojas | ||
| 44′ | Kaio Jorge | ||
| 45′ | Lucas RomerZé Lucas | ||
| 45′ | Jose MonteiroAldemir Ferreira | ||
| 57′ | Zé Lucas | ||
| 58′ | Gabriel RojasMatías Viña | ||
| 63′ | Aldemir FerreiraVictor Sá | ||
| 64′ | Pablo MaiaPedro Ferreira | ||
| 64′ | Marcos AntonioNewton | ||
| 68′ | Bruno RodriguesKeny arroyo | ||
| 72′ | Matheus Pereira | ||
| 78′ | Damian BobadillaDjhordney Ferreira | ||
| 85′ | Kaio JorgeMatheus Henrique | ||
| 85′ | GersonLuciano Rodríguez |
Cruzeiro
51%
Draw
27%
Sao Paulo
23%
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 403 | Accurate passes | 320 |
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Cruzeiro | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 27.1% | 19.3% |
| Market | 49.5% | 26.9% | 23.6% |
| Final | 50.5% | 26.9% | 22.6% |
| Edge | +4.1% | +0.2% | -4.3% |
Why Cruzeiro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.89.
- The market prices Cruzeiro below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo expected goals
Cruzeiro
1.63
Sao Paulo
0.89
Total expected goals: 2.52
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Cruzeiro
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Sao Paulo
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: result vs prediction
Cruzeiro 2 – 0 Sao Paulo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 50.5% | 1.98 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 50.5% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Sao Paulo | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo stats
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo going into this match
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Cruzeiro wins
3Draws
4Sao Paulo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Sao Paulo | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Sao Paulo | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-16 | Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Sao Paulo | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-02 | Sao Paulo | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-25 | Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2019-10-17 | Cruzeiro | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2019-06-02 | Sao Paulo | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.5%, draw 26.9%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.13 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.52 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.53 | 4.06 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.11 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.91 ▲ +0.11
X
3.52 ▲ +0.06
2
4.00 ▼ -0.33
46 snapshots recorded, from .