Sao Paulo
vs
Santos
1 – 2 Full time
| 33′ | Lucas Veríssimo | ||
| 34′ | Luciano | ||
| 36′ | Gabriel Barbosa | ||
| 41′ | Luciano | ||
| 45′ | Christian Oliva | ||
| 45′ | Álvaro BarrealPhilippe Coutinho | ||
| 45′ | Vinicius Moreira de LimaGustavo Henrique | ||
| 54′ | Arthur MeloGabriel Menino | ||
| 54′ | Gabriel Barbosa | ||
| 64′ | Ryan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos SilvaGustavo Santana | ||
| 64′ | Damian BobadillaDanielzinho | ||
| 64′ | Rafael TolóiNewton | ||
| 67′ | Iago Amaral BorduchiWendell | ||
| 73′ | Pedro LimaVictor Sá | ||
| 76′ | Everton | ||
| 76′ | EvertonRony | ||
| 86′ | Gabriel BarbosaThaciano |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Saves | 7 |
| 487 | Accurate passes | 327 |
Sao Paulo vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Santos
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 32.1% | 28.5% |
| Market | 47.3% | 28.5% | 24.2% |
| Final | 45.3% | 29.4% | 25.3% |
| Edge | -8.0% | +3.7% | +4.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Sao Paulo and Santos attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sao Paulo vs Santos: result vs prediction
Sao Paulo 1 – 2 Santos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 45.3% | 2.21 | -8.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 45.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Santos | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
Sao Paulo vs Santos stats
Sao Paulo and Santos recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Santos going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Santos | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sao Paulo | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Santos | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Sao Paulo | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Santos | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-14 | Sao Paulo | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Santos | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-16 | Sao Paulo | Santos | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2023-02-12 | Sao Paulo | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 3-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Santos | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 28.5%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.42 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.32 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.46 | 4.01 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.05 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .