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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 21

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino

1 – 0 Full time

6′Alix ViniciusEduardo Santos
18′Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
23′Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaLéo Duarte
45′Fábio Silva de FreitasIgnacio Sosa Ospital
45′Agustin Sant AnnaHenry Mosquera
57′Reinier Jesus CarvalhoMateo Cassierra
57′Mamady CisseVictor Hugo Gomes Silva
68′Wallace YanLucas Henrique Barbosa
72′Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteAlexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa
76′Eric RamiresJose Herrera
76′Eduardo SashaIsidro Pitta
84′Ignacio Sosa Ospital
90′Mateo CassierraIgor Gomes
90′Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos

Arena MRV, Bello HarisantaReferee: Lucas Casagrande

Atletico-MG 51%
Draw 26%
RB Bragantino 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 23
3 Shots on target 7
40 Possession % 60
5 Corners 10
16 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0
7 Saves 2
253 Accurate passes 408

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico-MGDrawRB Bragantino
Model57.2%25.4%17.4%
Market48.8%26.7%24.5%
Final50.9%26.4%22.7%
Edge+8.4%-1.4%-7.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico-MG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico-MG ↓ / RB Bragantino → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino expected goals

Atletico-MG 1.77
RB Bragantino 0.89

Total expected goals: 2.66

Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino attack and defence ratings

Atletico-MG

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.96 -4%

RB Bragantino

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino: result vs prediction

Atletico-MG 1 – 0 RB Bragantino

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico-MG 50.9% 1.96 +8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score No 50.2% 1.99 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.8% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico-MG50.9%
Draw26.4%
RB Bragantino22.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes49.8%
No50.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.3%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)49.1%
Handicap -1Atletico-MG win33.2%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss42.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-011.3%
2-011.0%

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino stats

Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino recent form

newest first
Atletico-MG DLWWLW
RB Bragantino LDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico-MG record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

RB Bragantino record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Atletico-MG wins 3Draws 2RB Bragantino wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-19Atletico-MGRB BragantinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana2-2
2026-08-12RB BragantinoAtletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana0-1
2026-02-04RB BragantinoAtletico-MGBrazil Serie A1-0
2025-11-16RB BragantinoAtletico-MGBrazil Serie A2-0
2025-08-03Atletico-MGRB BragantinoBrazil Serie A2-1
2024-09-22Atletico-MGRB BragantinoSerie A3-0
2024-06-12RB BragantinoAtletico-MGSerie A1-2
2023-10-26RB BragantinoAtletico-MGSerie A1-2
2023-06-10Atletico-MGRB BragantinoSerie A1-1
2022-09-07Atletico-MGRB BragantinoSerie A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.8%, draw 26.7%, away 24.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.95 3.67 3.90
Bet365 1.95 3.50 3.90
BetVictor 1.87 3.60 3.90
Betano 1.98 3.70 4.00
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.80
Marathonbet 1.89 3.56 3.78
Pinnacle 1.98 3.66 3.89
SBO 2.03 3.12 3.16
William Hill 1.85 3.40 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.10
X 3.56 ▲ +0.14
2 3.89 ▲ +0.46

14 snapshots recorded, from .