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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 29

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG

2 – 2 Full time

8′Kerwin Vargas
27′Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
38′Frederico Rodrigues de Paula SantosVictor Hugo Gomes Silva
61′GilbertoClaudinho
61′João Victor Machado CruzLeonardo Caetano Silva
67′Tomás Cuello
67′Maycon de Andrade BarberanTomás Pérez
68′Mamady CisseKevin Castaño
73′Tomás Pérez
74′Kevin Castaño
76′Reinier Jesus CarvalhoThiago Borbas
76′Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteIgor Gomes
81′Luiz GustavoBruno Zapelli
81′Carlos Teranjorge rivaldo
90′Lucas EsquivelGilberto Junior
90′Kevin Viveros
90′Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović

Arena da Baixada, CuritibaReferee: Ramon Abatti

Atletico Paranaense 43%
Draw 28%
Atletico-MG 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

31 Shots 15
10 Shots on target 9
51 Possession % 49
10 Corners 4
13 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
7 Saves 8
441 Accurate passes 427

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico ParanaenseDrawAtletico-MG
Model44.5%25.1%30.4%
Market42.5%29.6%27.9%
Final43.0%28.4%28.5%
Edge+2.0%-4.4%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Paranaense

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.44.
  • The market prices Atletico Paranaense below the model: +2.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Paran ↓ / Atletico-MG → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG expected goals

Atletico Paranaense 1.77
Atletico-MG 1.44

Total expected goals: 3.21

Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings

Atletico Paranaense

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Atletico-MG

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: result vs prediction

Atletico Paranaense 2 – 2 Atletico-MG

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Paranaense 43.0% 2.32 +2.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.2% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.3% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.5% 1.80 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Paranaense43.0%
Draw28.4%
Atletico-MG28.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.3%
No35.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.5%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)57.0%
Handicap -1Atletico Paranaense win24.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss55.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.1%
1-27.4%

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG stats

Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG recent form

newest first
Atletico Paranaense WDLDWD
Atletico-MG WDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Paranaense record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Atletico-MG record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atletico Paranaense wins 1Draws 6Atletico-MG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Atletico-MGAtletico ParanaenseBrazil Serie A2-1
2024-12-08Atletico-MGAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-0
2024-11-16Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGSerie A1-0
2023-09-02Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGSerie A1-1
2023-05-23Atletico-MGAtletico ParanaenseCONMEBOL Libertadores2-1
2023-04-30Atletico-MGAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-1
2023-04-19Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGCONMEBOL Libertadores2-1
2022-08-07Atletico-MGAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-3
2022-04-17Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGSerie A0-1
2021-12-16Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MGCopa Do Brasil1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 29.6%, away 27.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.25 3.18 3.53
Bet365 2.20 3.30 3.30
BetVictor 2.20 3.30 3.30
Betano 2.25 3.35 3.30
Betfair 2.20 3.10 3.40
Dafabet 2.14 3.35 3.65
Marathonbet 2.18 3.08 3.42
Pinnacle 2.30 3.15 3.55
SBO 2.08 2.95 3.04
William Hill 2.20 3.10 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.25
X 3.17 ▼ -0.13
2 3.35 ▼ -0.43

48 snapshots recorded, from .