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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 30

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense

1 – 4 Full time

6′Leonardo Caetano Silva
29′Luiz Gustavo
31′Kevin Viveros
40′Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
45′João Paulo
45′Marcio Antonio de Sousa JuniorYannick Bolasie
45′Luis Eduardo Marques dos SantosEduardo Vinicius Domachowski
45′Lucas EsquivelClaudinho
45′Arthur DiasLeonardo Pinheiro da Conceição
45′Leonardo Caetano SilvaEduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
70′Gilberto
70′Yago FelipeDavid Antunes da Silva
71′Giovanni AugustoRodrigo
72′Maurício Garcez
78′Kevin Viveros
84′Kauan FariaRafael Thyere
84′GilbertoAntonio Feliphe Costa Silva
89′Luiz GustavoJuan Portilla

Arena Condá, ChapecoReferee: Wilton Sampaio

Chapecoense-sc 25%
Draw 26%
Atletico Paranaense 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 8
46 Possession % 54
6 Corners 7
17 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
4 Saves 6
326 Accurate passes 380

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChapecoense-scDrawAtletico Paranaense
Model28.2%23.5%48.3%
Market23.7%26.6%49.8%
Final24.8%25.8%49.4%
Edge+1.1%-0.8%-0.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico Paranaense

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.49.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chapecoense-sc ↓ / Atletico Paran → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense expected goals

Chapecoense-sc 1.49
Atletico Paranaense 1.99

Total expected goals: 3.48

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings

Chapecoense-sc

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Atletico Paranaense

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: result vs prediction

Chapecoense-sc 1 – 4 Atletico Paranaense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Paranaense 49.4% 2.02 -0.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.8% 1.47 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.7% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chapecoense-sc24.8%
Draw25.8%
Atletico Paranaense49.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%
Both teams to scoreYes67.8%
No32.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.6%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)75.2%
Handicap -1Atletico Paranaense win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss51.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
1-29.1%
2-16.8%

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense stats

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense recent form

newest first
Chapecoense-sc LDLWLW
Atletico Paranaense DWDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chapecoense-sc record

  • They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Atletico Paranaense record

  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Chapecoense-sc wins 6Draws 3Atletico Paranaense wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scBrazil Serie A2-0
2025-09-17Chapecoense-scAtletico ParanaenseBrazil Serie B2-3
2025-05-09Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scBrazil Serie B1-1
2021-10-13Chapecoense-scAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-1
2021-06-27Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scSerie A2-2
2019-09-29Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scSerie A1-1
2019-05-05Chapecoense-scAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-1
2018-09-13Chapecoense-scAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-1
2018-04-15Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scSerie A5-1
2017-10-29Atletico ParanaenseChapecoense-scSerie A0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 26.6%, away 49.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.98 3.64 1.94
Bet365 4.20 3.50 1.85
BetVictor 4.00 3.60 1.87
Betano 4.05 3.60 1.90
Betfair 3.90 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 4.10 3.65 1.92
Marathonbet 3.85 3.52 1.88
Pinnacle 4.12 3.69 1.92
SBO 3.26 3.08 1.93
William Hill 3.80 3.40 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.99 ▲ +0.55
X 3.56 ▲ +0.16
2 1.90 ▼ -0.15

14 snapshots recorded, from .