Chapecoense-sc
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Paranaense
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
| Probability | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.0% | 23.5% | 48.4% |
| Market | 26.9% | 27.2% | 45.9% |
| Final | 27.2% | 26.3% | 46.5% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -3.7% | +2.5% |
Why Atletico Paranaense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Atletico Paranaense below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense match preview
Chapecoense-sc faces Atletico Paranaense in a Brazil Serie A match with kickoff set for October 12, 2026. The model suggests a 29% probability of a Chapecoense-sc victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 44% likelihood of an Atletico Paranaense win. The expected goals for Chapecoense-sc stand at 1.61, while Atletico Paranaense is projected at 1.76.
In terms of recent form, Chapecoense-sc has recorded a draw, loss, win, loss, win, and draw in their last six matches, while Atletico Paranaense has achieved a win, draw, loss, draw, win, and draw. The head-to-head record shows Chapecoense-sc with no wins, one draw, and two losses against Atletico Paranaense in their last three encounters. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 46.5% | 2.15 | +2.5% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 27.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 46.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense stats
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense recent form
| Chapecoense-sc |
LDLWLW |
| Atletico Paranaense |
DWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense season so far
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Atletico Paranaense | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Chapecoense-sc | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie B | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-09 | Atletico Paranaense | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 27.2%, away 45.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.48 | 2.11 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.50 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.38 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.59 | 3.46 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .