Gremio
vs
Internacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gremio
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Gremio vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Internacional
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 30.1% | 22.9% |
| Market | 34.6% | 29.1% | 36.3% |
| Final | 37.7% | 29.4% | 32.9% |
| Edge | +12.3% | +1.0% | -13.3% |
Why Gremio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.88.
- The market prices Gremio below the model: +12.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gremio vs Internacional match preview
Gremio faces Internacional in a Brazil Serie A clash on October 11, 2026. Gremio holds a 43% probability of winning, while Internacional is at 29%, with a 28% chance for a draw. The expected goals suggest Gremio is likely to score 1.48, compared to Internacional's 0.85. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Gremio, occurring at a 13% likelihood.
Recent form shows Gremio with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Internacional has one win and four losses, alongside one draw. In their last ten encounters, Gremio has secured three wins, Internacional two, and there have been five draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Gremio and Internacional team news
Gremio news
- Diego Caito — health problems
- Dodi — yellow cards
- J. Cabral — inactive
- Marlon — muscle injury
- Matheus Nascimento — inactive
Internacional news
- A. Sanabria — inactive
- Juninho — injury
- Kayky — ankle injury
- S. Rochet — lower back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gremio and Internacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Gremio and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Internacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 37.7% | 2.65 | +12.3% | 2.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 37.7% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Internacional | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Gremio vs Internacional stats
Gremio and Internacional recent form
| Gremio |
DDLLLW |
| Internacional |
WLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Internacional season so far
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Gremio | Internacional | Copa Do Brasil | 3-1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Internacional | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Internacional | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Internacional | Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gremio | Internacional | Gaúcho - 1 | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Internacional | Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Internacional | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-20 | Gremio | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Internacional | Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Gremio | Internacional | Gaúcho - 1 | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 29.1%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.23 | 2.68 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 2.98 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .