Brazil Serie A · 2026-10-11T20:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 30

Gremio vs Internacional

1 – 1 Full time

25′			Alan Patrick
27′			Rodrigo Villagra
29′			Mathias Villasanti
33′			Vitinho
45′			Alan PatrickBruno Henrique
53′			Bruno Henrique
60′			AlerrandroJohan Carbonero
62′			Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos SantosJosé Enamorado
62′			Filip KrovinovićMartin Braithwaite
65′			Francis Amuzu
69′			Thiago MaiaPaulo Lucas Santos de Paula
73′			Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos
85′			Brian AguirreFelix Torres
85′			Alexandro BernabéiMatheus Bahia
86′			Danilo Barbosa da SilvaGustavo Martins
86′			Francis AmuzuTetê
87′			MarlonCaio Paulista
90′			Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos

Arena do Grêmio, Porto AlegreReferee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Gremio

36%

Draw

30%

Internacional

34%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	3
67	Possession %	33
6	Corners	5
10	Fouls	26
2	Offsides	0
2	Saves	2
468	Accurate passes	188

Gremio vs Internacional overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Internacional

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Gremio	Draw	Internacional
Model	47.0%	30.1%	22.9%
Market	32.3%	30.1%	37.6%
Final	36.0%	30.1%	33.9%
Edge	+3.7%	+0.0%	-3.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Gremio

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.88.
The market prices Gremio below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

88%

2+ goals

67%

3+ goals

39%

No goals

12%

Gremio and Internacional expected goals

Gremio

1.37

Internacional

0.88

Total expected goals: 2.26

Gremio and Internacional attack and defence ratings

Gremio

Attack

0.85 -15%

Defence

0.93 -7%

Internacional

Attack

0.90 -10%

Defence

1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gremio vs Internacional: result vs prediction

Gremio 1 – 1 Internacional

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Remo — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Sao Paulo v Vitoria — match page · 2026-10-11
Atletico-MG vs Santos — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Palmeiras vs Corinthians · 2026-10-11
Flamengo vs Fluminense — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Bahia vs Mirassol — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Coritiba vs Botafogo · 2026-10-12
Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense — match page · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Gremio, previous: Remo vs Gremio prediction
Gremio, next: Gremio vs Cruzeiro: odds and pick
Internacional, previous: Internacional vs Corinthians: odds and pick
Internacional, next: Mirassol vs Internacional prediction

Gremio vs Internacional markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Gremio	36.0%	2.78	+3.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	60.7%	1.65	—	—
Both teams to score	No	54.9%	1.82	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	69.9%	1.43	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	53.0%	1.89	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Gremio	36.0%
	Draw	30.1%
	Internacional	33.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39.3%
	Under 2.5	60.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	45.1%
	No	54.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.1%
	12 (either side)	69.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.0%
Handicap -1	Gremio win	23.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.8%
	Loss	53.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.0%
	1-0	13.1%
	0-0	11.7%

Gremio vs Internacional stats

Gremio and Internacional recent form

newest first

Gremio	DDLLLW
Internacional	WLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gremio and Internacional going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gremio record

They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional record

They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gremio vs Internacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Gremio wins 5Draws 2Internacional wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-09-03	Gremio	Internacional	Copa Do Brasil	3-1
2026-08-27	Internacional	Gremio	Copa Do Brasil	0-0
2026-04-11	Internacional	Gremio	Brazil Serie A	0-0
2026-03-08	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	1-1
2026-03-01	Gremio	Internacional	Gaúcho - 1	3-0
2026-01-25	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	4-2
2025-09-21	Internacional	Gremio	Brazil Serie A	2-3
2025-04-20	Gremio	Internacional	Brazil Serie A	1-1
2025-03-16	Internacional	Gremio	Gaúcho - 1	1-1
2025-03-08	Gremio	Internacional	Gaúcho - 1	0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gremio vs Internacional odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 30.1%, away 37.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.02	3.16	2.54
Bet365	2.90	3.20	2.50
BetVictor	2.90	3.13	2.50
Betano	2.95	3.20	2.52
Betfair	2.88	3.00	2.50
Dafabet	3.00	3.20	2.55
Marathonbet	2.92	3.06	2.46
Pinnacle	3.02	3.13	2.61
SBO	2.68	2.89	2.43
William Hill	2.90	3.00	2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.91 ▲ +0.58

X 3.13 ▼ -0.19

2 2.50 ▼ -0.42

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.