Mirassol
vs
Internacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mirassol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Mirassol vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mirassol vs Internacional
| Probability | Mirassol | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 28.7% | 23.2% |
| Market | 41.1% | 28.0% | 30.8% |
| Final | 42.9% | 28.2% | 28.9% |
| Edge | +7.0% | +0.7% | -7.7% |
Why Mirassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Mirassol below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mirassol vs Internacional match preview
Mirassol faces Internacional in a Brazil Serie A clash, with the probabilities indicating a 43% chance of a Mirassol win, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 29% chance for Internacional to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Mirassol, with expected goals of 1.48 for Mirassol and 0.96 for Internacional.
Recent form shows Mirassol with a mixed record of D-W-D-W-L-D, while Internacional has struggled, recording W-L-W-L-L-L in their last six matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Mirassol has emerged victorious twice and drawn once, with Internacional yet to secure a win against them. The model indicates a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mirassol and Internacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Mirassol and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Mirassol
Internacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Mirassol vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 42.9% | 2.33 | +7.0% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mirassol | 42.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Internacional | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirassol win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Mirassol vs Internacional stats
Mirassol and Internacional recent form
| Mirassol |
DWDWLD |
| Internacional |
WLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mirassol and Internacional season so far
Mirassol record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
Internacional record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Internacional | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-15 | Mirassol | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Internacional | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mirassol vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 28.0%, away 30.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |