Gremio
vs
Cruzeiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruzeiro
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Gremio vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 27.8% | 30.6% |
| Market | 33.1% | 27.3% | 39.6% |
| Final | 35.3% | 27.4% | 37.3% |
| Edge | +8.5% | +0.5% | -9.0% |
Why Cruzeiro
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro match preview
Gremio faces Cruzeiro in a Brazil Serie A matchup on October 18, 2026. Gremio's recent form shows three draws and three losses, while Cruzeiro has alternated between wins and losses, with two wins in their last three matches. According to our model, Gremio has a 33% chance of winning, while Cruzeiro stands at 40%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals are 1.49 for Gremio and 1.25 for Cruzeiro, suggesting a competitive encounter.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Cruzeiro, occurring with an 8% probability. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score, with a 57% probability. The head-to-head record shows Cruzeiro with three consecutive wins against Gremio.
Gremio and Cruzeiro team news
Gremio news
- J. Cabral — inactive
- Matheus Nascimento — inactive
- Wallace — yellow cards
Cruzeiro news
- Felipe Morais — yellow cards
- Gabriel Pec — broken leg
- L. Romero — injury
- L. Sinisterra — muscle injury
- N. Villarreal — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gremio and Cruzeiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Gremio and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 37.3% | 2.68 | -9.0% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 35.3% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Cruzeiro | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 69.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
Gremio vs Cruzeiro stats
Gremio and Cruzeiro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Cruzeiro season so far
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Gremio | Cruzeiro | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Cruzeiro | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Gremio | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Cruzeiro | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2024-11-28 | Cruzeiro | Gremio | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-10 | Gremio | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-27 | Gremio | Cruzeiro | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-31 | Cruzeiro | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-17 | Gremio | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Cruzeiro | Gremio | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 26.8%, away 40.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.57 | 2.34 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.21 |
| Marathonbet | 2.89 | 3.46 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.52 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .