Coritiba
vs
Gremio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coritiba
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Coritiba is the favourite, not a value bet.
Coritiba vs Gremio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Gremio
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.6% | 26.9% | 36.4% |
| Market | 45.5% | 27.4% | 27.1% |
| Final | 43.3% | 27.3% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.1% | +2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 43.3% × 2.16 − 1).
Coritiba vs Gremio match preview
Coritiba faces Gremio in a Brazil Serie A matchup with both teams struggling for form. Coritiba's recent results show a series of losses, with their last five matches yielding only two draws and three defeats. Gremio has also struggled, experiencing a similar run with four draws and two losses in their last six games. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.46, indicating a balanced contest.
According to our model, Coritiba has a 42% chance of winning, while Gremio stands at 31%, with a 27% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Coritiba, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score.
Coritiba and Gremio team news
Coritiba news
- Lucas Ronier — knee injury
- Lucas Taverna — inactive
- Richard — inactive
- Thiago Santos — yellow cards
Gremio news
- Danilo Barbosa — injury
- J. Cabral — inactive
- J. Nardoni — inactive
- Matheus Nascimento — inactive
- Walter Kannemann — suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coritiba and Gremio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Coritiba and Gremio attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Gremio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Gremio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 43.3% | 2.31 | -2.2% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 43.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Gremio | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coritiba win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 63.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
Coritiba vs Gremio stats
Coritiba and Gremio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Gremio season so far
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Gremio | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coritiba vs Gremio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 27.4%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.56 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.46 | 3.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.62 | 3.40 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 2.99 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .