Vitoria
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitoria
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vitoria is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
| Probability | Vitoria | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 24.4% | 32.6% |
| Market | 37.0% | 28.5% | 34.5% |
| Final | 38.4% | 27.5% | 34.1% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -1.0% | -0.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.60 − 1).
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense match preview
Vitoria will face Atletico Paranaense in an upcoming Brazil Serie A match, with Vitoria holding a 38% probability of winning compared to Atletico Paranaense's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Vitoria, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Vitoria and 1.63 for Atletico Paranaense. Both teams are showing a tendency to score, with the model indicating a 68% chance for both teams to find the net.
Recent form shows Vitoria with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Atletico Paranaense has a slightly better record with two wins, two draws, and one loss. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Vitoria has secured one win, while Atletico Paranaense has claimed two victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense team news
Vitoria news
- Baralhas — broken leg
- Camutanga — broken leg
- Dudu — back injury
- Edu — achilles tendon injury
- Fabiano — knee injury
- Nathan Mendes — knee injury
- Ramon — leg injury
- Rene — yellow cards
- Riccieli — calf injury
Atletico Paranaense news
- C. Teran — inactive
- Claudinho — injury
- Dantas — inactive
- G. Benavidez — muscle injury
- K. A. Calderon Vargas — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 38.4% | 2.60 | +1.5% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 38.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% |
| No | 32.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense stats
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense recent form
| Vitoria |
DLWLDW |
| Atletico Paranaense |
LWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense season so far
Vitoria record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vitoria | Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil | 4-0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Atletico Paranaense | Vitoria | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico Paranaense | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 28.5%, away 34.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.59 | 3.40 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.30 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.33 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 3.02 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .