Corinthians
vs
Vitoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Corinthians
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Corinthians vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Corinthians vs Vitoria
| Probability | Corinthians | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 28.7% | 36.6% |
| Market | 57.2% | 25.4% | 17.4% |
| Final | 51.6% | 26.2% | 22.2% |
| Edge | -22.5% | +3.3% | +19.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Corinthians vs Vitoria match preview
Corinthians will host Vitoria in a Brazil Serie A match on October 19, 2026. According to our model, Corinthians has a 51% probability of winning, while Vitoria stands at 22% and a draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Corinthians, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Corinthians struggling at the bottom of the table, recording five losses followed by a draw, while Vitoria has a win, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Corinthians is projected to score 1.29, while Vitoria is slightly ahead with 1.34. Our model indicates a 49% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Corinthians with one win and two draws against Vitoria in their last three encounters.
Corinthians and Vitoria team news
Corinthians news
- Kayke — knee injury
- M. Depay — yellow cards
- Z. Labyad — knee injury
Vitoria news
- Baralhas — broken leg
- Caca — yellow cards
- Camutanga — broken leg
- Dudu — back injury
- Edu — achilles tendon injury
- Fabiano — knee injury
- Lucas Silva — injury
- Nathan Mendes — knee injury
- Ramon — leg injury
- Riccieli — calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Corinthians and Vitoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Corinthians and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Corinthians
Vitoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Corinthians vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 51.6% | 1.94 | -22.5% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 51.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Vitoria | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 65.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Corinthians vs Vitoria stats
Corinthians and Vitoria recent form
| Corinthians |
LLLLLD |
| Vitoria |
LWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Corinthians and Vitoria season so far
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Corinthians vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Vitoria | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Vitoria | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Corinthians | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Corinthians vs Vitoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 25.4%, away 17.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.84 | 5.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.72 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.82 | 5.51 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .