Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Sao Paulo
vs
Vitoria
2 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Matheuzinho | ||
| 16′ | Cacá | ||
| 20′ | Jonathan Calleri | ||
| 24′ | Gustavo Santana | ||
| 39′ | Emmanuel Martínez | ||
| 44′ | Djhordney Ferreira | ||
| 59′ | Djhordney FerreiraLucas Moura | ||
| 59′ | Lucas RamonMarcos Antonio | ||
| 69′ | Lucas SilvaTomás Pochettino | ||
| 70′ | Jonathan Calleri | ||
| 75′ | Artur Victor GuimarãesPedro Ferreira | ||
| 75′ | Gustavo SantanaPedro Lima | ||
| 77′ | Jose Monteiro | ||
| 78′ | Iago Amaral Borduchi | ||
| 78′ | Caíque GonçalvesZé Vitor | ||
| 78′ | MatheuzinhoAnderson Pato | ||
| 79′ | Carlos Renê de Sousa FerreiraRenato Kayzer | ||
| 84′ | Damian BobadillaRafael Tolói | ||
| 86′ | Renato Kayzer | ||
| 90′ | Emmanuel Martínezbruno alex | ||
| 90′ | Marcos Antonio |
Sao Paulo
54%
Draw
26%
Vitoria
20%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 394 | Accurate passes | 327 |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 31.1% | 27.1% |
| Market | 58.0% | 24.9% | 17.1% |
| Final | 53.9% | 26.4% | 19.6% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +1.6% | +2.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
38%
No goals
12%
Sao Paulo and Vitoria expected goals
Sao Paulo
1.26
Vitoria
0.97
Total expected goals: 2.23
Sao Paulo and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Vitoria
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: result vs prediction
Sao Paulo 2 – 1 Vitoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 53.9% | 1.85 | -4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 53.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Vitoria | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria stats
Sao Paulo and Vitoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7Sao Paulo wins
0Draws
3Vitoria wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Sao Paulo | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Sao Paulo | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2018-10-26 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2018-06-13 | Sao Paulo | Vitoria | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2017-09-17 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2017-06-08 | Sao Paulo | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2016-09-25 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 24.9%, away 17.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.75 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.78 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.86 | 5.72 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.49 | 4.82 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.62 —
X
3.79 ▲ +0.04
2
5.50 —
12 snapshots recorded, from .