Sao Paulo
vs
Vitoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sao Paulo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 31.1% | 27.1% |
| Market | 57.8% | 24.7% | 17.5% |
| Final | 53.8% | 26.3% | 19.9% |
| Edge | -16.0% | +6.4% | +9.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria match preview
Sao Paulo is set to face Vitoria in the Brazil Serie A, with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model assigns a 55% probability of a Sao Paulo victory, while Vitoria's chances stand at 16%, and a draw is estimated at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sao Paulo, with a 16% probability. Expected goals indicate Sao Paulo at 1.47 and Vitoria at 0.69, suggesting a defensive struggle for Vitoria.
In terms of recent form, Sao Paulo has recorded one win, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches, while Vitoria has struggled with one win and four losses. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters favors Vitoria, who has won twice compared to Sao Paulo's single victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate reliability in the model's predictions.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria team news
Sao Paulo news
- Buta — knee injury
- D. Duarte — knee injury
- Ferreira — injury
- Iago Borduchi — inactive
- Lucas Moura — achilles tendon injury
- Lucca Marques — jaw injury
- Luciano — inactive
- N. Bosshardt — inactive
- Rafael — inactive
Vitoria news
- Anderson — knee injury
- Baralhas — broken leg
- Camutanga — broken leg
- D. Tarzia — yellow cards
- Dudu — back injury
- Edu — achilles tendon injury
- Fabiano — knee injury
- Nathan Mendes — knee injury
- Ramon — leg injury
- Riccieli — calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Sao Paulo and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 53.8% | 1.86 | -16.0% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 53.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Vitoria | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria stats
Sao Paulo and Vitoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Vitoria season so far
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Vitoria | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Sao Paulo | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.8%, draw 24.7%, away 17.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.92 | 5.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.86 | 5.35 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.41 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .