Sao Paulo
vs
Vasco DA Gama
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sao Paulo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.8% | 33.6% | 43.6% |
| Market | 45.4% | 27.7% | 27.0% |
| Final | 39.7% | 29.2% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -22.5% | +5.9% | +16.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama match preview
Sao Paulo faces Vasco DA Gama in a Brazil Serie A clash on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Sao Paulo has a 40% chance of winning, while Vasco DA Gama stands at 31%, and a draw is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sao Paulo, with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Sao Paulo will score 0.80, while Vasco DA Gama is projected to net 1.17.
Recent form indicates Sao Paulo's mixed results with one win in their last six matches (W-L-L-W-D-L), contrasting with Vasco DA Gama's stronger performance, which includes four wins in their last six outings (D-W-W-W-W-D). In their last three encounters, Sao Paulo has recorded one win, while Vasco DA Gama has secured two victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama team news
Sao Paulo news
- Buta — knee injury
- D. Duarte — knee injury
- Djhordney — yellow cards
- Ferreira — injury
- Luciano — inactive
- N. Bosshardt — inactive
Vasco DA Gama news
- C. Cuesta — inactive
- F. Colidio — injury
- Mateus Carvalho — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.90
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 39.7% | 2.52 | -22.5% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 39.7% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.4% |
| No | 62.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 7.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 77.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.3% |
| 0-1 | 15.9% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Sao Paulo |
WLLWDL |
| Vasco DA Gama |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama season so far
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-06-13 | Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-17 | Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2024-06-23 | Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-20 | Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 4-2 |
| 2021-08-05 | Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo | Copa Do Brasil | 1-2 |
| 2021-07-29 | Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-22 | Sao Paulo | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.2%, draw 27.8%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.54 | 3.48 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .