Botafogo
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botafogo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc
| Probability | Botafogo | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 24.1% | 18.0% |
| Market | 71.9% | 17.4% | 10.7% |
| Final | 68.4% | 19.1% | 12.5% |
| Edge | -14.0% | +6.8% | +7.3% |
Why Botafogo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.98.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc match preview
Botafogo enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 65%, while Chapecoense-sc stands at 15%. The expected goals for Botafogo are 1.90, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.98, indicating a significant advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Botafogo with two draws and a win in their last six matches, while Chapecoense-sc has struggled, recording just one win in their last six.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Botafogo, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 54% likelihood of scoring. Historically, in their last three encounters, Botafogo has secured two victories against Chapecoense-sc's single win.
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc team news
Botafogo news
- Arthur Chaves — inactive
- J. Barrera — ankle injury
- Kaio Pantaleao — knee injury
- L. Monzon — inactive
Chapecoense-sc news
- Heitor — hamstring injury
- Marcinho — yellow cards
- Max Alves — back injury
- Rafael Carvalheira — knee injury
- Robert Conceicao — knee injury
- Vinicius Balieiro — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc attack and defence ratings
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 68.4% | 1.46 | -14.0% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 68.4% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 12.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc stats
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc recent form
| Botafogo |
DLLWDD |
| Chapecoense-sc |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc season so far
Botafogo record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Botafogo | Chapecoense-sc | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 1-4 |
| 2019-11-27 | Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2019-08-26 | Botafogo | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2018-11-15 | Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2018-07-26 | Botafogo | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2017-10-11 | Botafogo | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2017-06-18 | Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2016-11-16 | Botafogo | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.9%, draw 18.6%, away 11.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 5.59 | 8.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.70 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.30 | 8.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 6.05 | 9.78 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .