Chapecoense-sc
vs
Fluminense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fluminense
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fluminense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
| Probability | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 25.5% | 53.3% |
| Market | 23.0% | 26.1% | 50.8% |
| Final | 22.6% | 26.0% | 51.4% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.2% | +0.6% |
Why Fluminense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 51.4% × 1.92 − 1).
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense match preview
Chapecoense-sc faces Fluminense in their upcoming Brazil Serie A match, with the probabilities indicating a 22% chance for Chapecoense-sc to win, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 52% chance for Fluminense to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Chapecoense-sc are 1.14, while Fluminense is projected to score 1.89.
Recent form shows Chapecoense-sc struggling with three consecutive losses followed by a draw and a win, while Fluminense has alternating results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 58%, and both teams scoring is at 59%. In their only previous encounter, Fluminense emerged victorious with a 1-0 win.
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense team news
Chapecoense-sc news
- Heitor — hamstring injury
- Kauan — yellow cards
- Rafael Carvalheira — knee injury
- Robert Conceicao — knee injury
- Vinicius Balieiro — knee injury
Fluminense news
- Alisson — hip injury
- J. Savarino — yellow cards
- John Kennedy — knee injury
- Martinelli — inactive
- Matheus Reis — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 51.4% | 1.94 | +0.6% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 22.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Fluminense | 51.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.3% |
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense stats
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense recent form
| Chapecoense-sc |
LLLDLW |
| Fluminense |
WLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense season so far
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Fluminense record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.2%, draw 26.1%, away 50.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.08 | 3.66 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.92 |
| Marathonbet | 3.95 | 3.55 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | 4.43 | 3.71 | 1.80 |
| SBO | 3.50 | 3.17 | 1.82 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .