Palmeiras
vs
RB Bragantino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Palmeiras is the favourite, not a value bet.
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | RB Bragantino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.1% | 24.4% | 11.5% |
| Market | 61.0% | 22.5% | 16.5% |
| Final | 61.8% | 23.0% | 15.2% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.5% | -1.3% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.7% per unit staked (our 61.8% × 1.59 − 1).
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino match preview
Palmeiras enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while RB Bragantino holds a 15% chance. The expected goals for Palmeiras is 1.76 compared to RB Bragantino's 0.62, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Palmeiras with four wins in their last five matches, while RB Bragantino has struggled, managing only one win in their last five outings.
In their last three encounters, Palmeiras has dominated RB Bragantino, securing all three victories without any draws. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Palmeiras, occurring with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance that both teams will score.
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino team news
Palmeiras news
- Andreas Pereira — suspended
- J. Piquerez — yellow cards
- Jefte — knee injury
- Vitor Roque — inactive
RB Bragantino news
- Davi Gomes — knee injury
- Eric Ramires — yellow cards
- H. Mosquera — inactive
- Rodriguinho — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
RB Bragantino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 61.8% | 1.62 | +0.8% | 1.59 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 61.8% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| RB Bragantino | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 35.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.3% |
| 2-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino stats
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino recent form
| Palmeiras |
LWWWWD |
| RB Bragantino |
DWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino season so far
Palmeiras record
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
RB Bragantino record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | RB Bragantino | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Palmeiras | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | RB Bragantino | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.9%, draw 22.6%, away 16.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.18 | 5.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.10 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.25 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.05 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.39 | 5.82 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 3.76 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .