Santos
vs
Palmeiras
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Palmeiras is the favourite, not a value bet.
Santos vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Santos | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.2% | 30.8% | 38.0% |
| Market | 31.4% | 28.4% | 40.1% |
| Final | 31.4% | 29.0% | 39.6% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.6% | -0.5% |
Why Palmeiras
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.40 − 1).
Santos vs Palmeiras match preview
Santos faces Palmeiras in a crucial Brazil Serie A matchup, with the probabilities indicating a 31% chance for Santos to win, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 40% probability favoring Palmeiras. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% chance. Expected goals are 1.09 for Santos and 1.23 for Palmeiras, suggesting a tightly contested match.
In terms of recent form, Santos has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Palmeiras has shown stronger performance with four wins and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters favors Palmeiras, who have secured six victories compared to Santos' two wins and two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santos and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Santos and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Santos
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santos vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 39.6% | 2.52 | -0.5% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 31.4% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Palmeiras | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 62.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
Santos vs Palmeiras stats
Santos and Palmeiras recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos and Palmeiras season so far
Santos record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Palmeiras record
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Santos | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Palmeiras | Santos | Copa Do Brasil | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Palmeiras | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Santos | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Palmeiras | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-23 | Santos | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-31 | Santos | Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Palmeiras | Santos | Paulista - A1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santos vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 28.4%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.42 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.37 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.32 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .