Atletico-MG
vs
Cruzeiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico-MG
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.26.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Market | 39.1% | 27.4% | 33.5% |
| Final | 42.1% | 26.7% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (our 42.1% × 2.48 − 1).
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro match preview
Atletico-MG faces Cruzeiro in a Brazil Serie A match with Atletico-MG having a 42% probability of winning, while Cruzeiro stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Atletico-MG, with expected goals of 2.05 for Atletico-MG and 1.34 for Cruzeiro. Recent form shows Atletico-MG with a mixed record of L-W-W-W-D-W, while Cruzeiro has also been inconsistent, recording W-L-W-W-L-W.
In their last ten encounters, Atletico-MG has secured 4 wins, Cruzeiro has 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 65%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 42.1% | 2.38 | +3.0% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 42.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Cruzeiro | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro stats
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro recent form
| Atletico-MG |
LWWWDW |
| Cruzeiro |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Mineiro - 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Cruzeiro | Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 27.4%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.44 | 2.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 3.34 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .