Corinthians
vs
Mirassol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Corinthians
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Corinthians is the favourite, not a value bet.
Corinthians vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Corinthians vs Mirassol
| Probability | Corinthians | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.9% | 31.3% | 37.8% |
| Market | 59.8% | 24.4% | 15.8% |
| Final | 52.5% | 26.1% | 21.3% |
| Edge | -7.2% | +1.7% | +5.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.9% per unit staked (our 52.5% × 1.62 − 1).
Corinthians vs Mirassol match preview
Corinthians face Mirassol in a Brazil Serie A matchup with kickoff set for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Corinthians hold a 53% probability of winning, while Mirassol has a 21% chance, and a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline projected is 1-0 in favor of Corinthians, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals are calculated at 1.06 for Corinthians and 1.20 for Mirassol, indicating a closely contested match.
Recent form shows Corinthians struggling with six consecutive matches without a win (D-L-L-L-L-L), while Mirassol has found some success, winning three of their last six (W-L-D-W-D-W). In their last three head-to-head encounters, Corinthians have one win, while Mirassol has two victories, suggesting a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Corinthians and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Corinthians and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Corinthians
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Corinthians vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 52.5% | 1.90 | -7.2% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 52.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Mirassol | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win | 12.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 69.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
Corinthians vs Mirassol stats
Corinthians and Mirassol recent form
| Corinthians |
DLLLLL |
| Mirassol |
WLDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Corinthians and Mirassol season so far
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mirassol | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Corinthians | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Mirassol | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Corinthians vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 24.5%, away 16.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.60 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.84 | 5.75 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .