Sao Paulo
vs
Corinthians
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sao Paulo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.86.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.8% | 23.8% | 15.4% |
| Market | 45.4% | 29.7% | 24.8% |
| Final | 49.3% | 28.3% | 22.5% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -1.5% | -2.4% |
Why Sao Paulo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sao Paulo below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.5% per unit staked (our 49.3% × 2.10 − 1).
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians match preview
Sao Paulo is set to face Corinthians in the Brazil Serie A, with a probability of 49% for Sao Paulo to win, 28% for a draw, and 22% for Corinthians to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Sao Paulo, which has an 11% likelihood. The expected goals for Sao Paulo stand at 1.90, while Corinthians is projected at 0.86.
Recent form indicates that Sao Paulo has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches, while Corinthians has struggled significantly, losing five of their last six games. In their last three encounters, Sao Paulo has won once, while Corinthians has claimed two victories, showcasing a competitive head-to-head history.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Corinthians expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Sao Paulo and Corinthians attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 49.3% | 2.03 | +3.8% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 49.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Corinthians | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 39.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 1-1 | 11.4% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians stats
Sao Paulo and Corinthians recent form
| Sao Paulo |
LDWWLL |
| Corinthians |
LDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Corinthians season so far
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Corinthians | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Corinthians | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Sao Paulo | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.4%, draw 29.7%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.26 | 3.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.25 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.16 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .