Botafogo
vs
Atletico-MG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botafogo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Botafogo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Botafogo | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 28.9% | 42.3% |
| Market | 45.6% | 26.0% | 28.4% |
| Final | 41.4% | 26.7% | 31.8% |
| Edge | -4.2% | +0.7% | +3.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 41.4% × 2.20 − 1).
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG match preview
Botafogo faces Atletico-MG in a Brazil Serie A clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Botafogo has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and two more losses in their last six matches, while Atletico-MG has bounced back with three consecutive wins following three losses. The probabilities indicate a 41% chance for a Botafogo victory, a 27% chance for a draw, and a 32% chance for an Atletico-MG win.
The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Botafogo at 1.13 and Atletico-MG at 1.42. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 1-0 in favor of Botafogo, with a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo and Atletico-MG expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Botafogo and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 41.4% | 2.41 | -4.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 41.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Atletico-MG | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 71.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG stats
Botafogo and Atletico-MG recent form
| Botafogo |
LLWDLL |
| Atletico-MG |
LLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo and Atletico-MG season so far
Botafogo record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Atletico-MG | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Botafogo | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Atletico-MG | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 26.0%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.76 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.64 | 3.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.74 | 3.56 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .