Atletico-MG
vs
Gremio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico-MG
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.24.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Gremio
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.6% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.6% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio match preview
Atletico-MG faces Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil with a 52% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 25% and Gremio at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Atletico-MG will score 1.87 and Gremio 1.18, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
Recent form shows Atletico-MG with two losses followed by three wins and a draw, while Gremio has one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. In their last four head-to-head encounters, Atletico-MG has secured one victory, while Gremio has won three times. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Gremio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Atletico-MG and Gremio attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Gremio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 43.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Gremio | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Atletico-MG vs Gremio stats
Atletico-MG and Gremio recent form
| Atletico-MG |
LLLWWW |
| Gremio |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Gremio season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Gremio record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Atletico-MG | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gremio | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Atletico-MG | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-29 | Gremio | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.