Vasco DA Gama
vs
Palmeiras
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.2% | 31.3% | 45.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.2% | 31.3% | 45.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras match preview
In the upcoming Copa do Brasil match, Vasco DA Gama faces Palmeiras, with the model predicting a 27% chance for a Vasco win, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 41% chance for Palmeiras to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 13% probability. The expected goals for Vasco DA Gama stand at 0.96, while Palmeiras is projected at 1.23.
Recent form indicates that Vasco DA Gama has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, whereas Palmeiras has been in strong form with four consecutive wins following one loss. In their last four encounters, Vasco has managed one win, while Palmeiras has triumphed three times. The model suggests a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 23.2% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Palmeiras | 45.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras stats
Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
LWLLWD |
| Palmeiras |
DWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras season so far
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Palmeiras | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Vasco DA Gama | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Palmeiras | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Vasco DA Gama | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.