Cruzeiro
vs
Palmeiras
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Palmeiras is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Cruzeiro | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 27.6% | 37.7% |
| Market | 32.7% | 27.2% | 40.1% |
| Final | 33.2% | 27.3% | 39.5% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.1% | -0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 39.5% × 2.42 − 1).
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras match preview
Cruzeiro faces Palmeiras in what promises to be a competitive match in the Brazil Serie A. According to our model, Cruzeiro has a 33% chance of winning, while Palmeiras is favored at 40%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals are closely matched, with Cruzeiro at 1.37 and Palmeiras at 1.44. Recent form shows Cruzeiro with four wins in their last six matches, while Palmeiras has two wins in their last six, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 58% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, Cruzeiro has won once, with the other two matches ending in draws, suggesting a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 39.5% | 2.53 | -0.6% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 33.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Palmeiras | 39.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras stats
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras season so far
Cruzeiro record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras record
- They have won 20 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Palmeiras | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Palmeiras | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 27.2%, away 40.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.48 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.38 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.92 | 3.47 | 2.41 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.13 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .