Gremio
vs
Bahia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gremio
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.15.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gremio vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Bahia
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.5% | 25.0% | 22.5% |
| Market | 41.8% | 26.8% | 31.3% |
| Final | 44.5% | 26.4% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -0.5% | -2.2% |
Why Gremio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gremio below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (our 44.5% × 2.31 − 1).
Gremio vs Bahia match preview
Gremio faces Bahia in a Brazil Serie A match with Gremio holding a 44% probability of winning, while Bahia has a 30% chance and a draw sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Gremio, with a 10% probability. The expected goals for Gremio is 1.84, compared to Bahia's 1.15, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from Gremio.
In terms of recent form, Gremio has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Bahia, on the other hand, has also struggled, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw, highlighting a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gremio and Bahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Gremio and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Bahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 44.5% | 2.25 | +2.7% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 44.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Bahia | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Gremio vs Bahia stats
Gremio and Bahia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Bahia season so far
Gremio record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Bahia | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Bahia | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Gremio | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 26.8%, away 31.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.59 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.48 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.61 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.18 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .