Vasco DA Gama
vs
Internacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasco DA Gama
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vasco DA Gama is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional
| Probability | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 27.3% | 21.7% |
| Market | 57.0% | 24.4% | 18.6% |
| Final | 55.5% | 25.1% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% |
Why Vasco DA Gama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.97.
Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 55.5% × 1.69 − 1).
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional match preview
Vasco DA Gama faces Internacional in a Brazil Serie A matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 19, 2026. According to our model, Vasco DA Gama has a 55% probability of winning, while the chances for a draw and an Internacional victory stand at 25% and 19%, respectively. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Vasco DA Gama, with expected goals of 1.61 for Vasco and 0.97 for Internacional.
In terms of recent form, Vasco DA Gama has recorded two wins, followed by a mix of losses, while Internacional has shown slightly better consistency with three wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters reflects a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 55.5% | 1.80 | -1.5% | 1.69 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 55.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Internacional | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.0% |
| No | 49.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional stats
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional recent form
| Vasco DA Gama |
WWLLWL |
| Internacional |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional season so far
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Internacional record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Internacional | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Vasco DA Gama | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Internacional | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 24.4%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.92 | 5.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.80 | 4.95 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .