Internacional
vs
Coritiba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Internacional
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Internacional is the favourite, not a value bet.
Internacional vs Coritiba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Internacional vs Coritiba
| Probability | Internacional | Draw | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.1% | 22.5% | 13.4% |
| Market | 59.2% | 23.2% | 17.6% |
| Final | 60.4% | 23.1% | 16.5% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.2% | -1.0% |
Why Internacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (our 60.4% × 1.62 − 1).
Internacional vs Coritiba match preview
Internacional faces Coritiba in the Brazil Serie A with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while Coritiba holds a 16% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Internacional, with an expected goals tally of 2.06 for Internacional compared to 0.76 for Coritiba. Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with Internacional recording two wins in their last five matches, while Coritiba has struggled, managing only one draw and four losses.
In their last head-to-head encounter, Internacional and Coritiba played to a draw, with no wins for either side. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 54%, and there is a 47% chance that both teams will score in this match. Overall, the confidence grade for this fixture is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Internacional and Coritiba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Internacional and Coritiba attack and defence ratings
Internacional
Coritiba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Internacional vs Coritiba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 60.4% | 1.66 | +1.2% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional win | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 60.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Coritiba | 16.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional win | 40.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 35.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
Internacional vs Coritiba stats
Internacional and Coritiba recent form
| Internacional |
LWLDWL |
| Coritiba |
LLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Internacional and Coritiba season so far
Internacional record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional vs Coritiba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Coritiba | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Internacional vs Coritiba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 23.2%, away 17.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.18 | 5.41 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.15 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.05 | 5.25 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .