Atletico Paranaense
vs
Vasco DA Gama
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Paranaense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Paranaense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| Market | 44.0% | 27.1% | 28.9% |
| Final | 44.0% | 26.6% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -0.5% | +0.6% |
Why Atletico Paranaense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.48.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.20 − 1).
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama match preview
Atletico Paranaense faces Vasco DA Gama in a Brazil Serie A matchup with a kickoff scheduled for November 4, 2026. According to our model, Atletico Paranaense has a 45% chance of winning, while Vasco DA Gama stands at 29%, and the probability of a draw is 26%. The expected goals for Atletico Paranaense is 1.65, compared to 1.45 for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Atletico Paranaense, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Paranaense has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Vasco DA Gama has achieved three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. Our model indicates a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 44.0% | 2.28 | -0.0% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 44.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Atletico Paranaense |
LDLWDW |
| Vasco DA Gama |
LWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama season so far
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Vasco DA Gama | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 27.1%, away 28.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.61 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.50 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.49 | 3.29 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .