Gremio
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gremio
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gremio is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 24.5% | 34.7% |
| Market | 39.6% | 28.8% | 31.6% |
| Final | 39.9% | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -1.1% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.43 − 1).
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense match preview
Gremio faces Atletico Paranaense in a Brazil Serie A matchup, with Gremio holding a 40% probability of winning, while Atletico Paranaense sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Gremio, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood that both teams will score. Expected goals for Gremio are at 1.77, compared to 1.63 for Atletico Paranaense.
In terms of recent form, Gremio has struggled with a record of L-D-D-D-L-L, while Atletico Paranaense shows a more favorable trend with L-W-D-W-D-L. The last head-to-head encounter resulted in 0 wins for both teams and 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 39.9% | 2.50 | +0.3% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 39.9% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% |
| No | 32.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense stats
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense recent form
| Gremio |
LDDDLL |
| Atletico Paranaense |
LWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Atletico Paranaense season so far
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Atletico Paranaense | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 28.8%, away 31.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.34 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.24 | 2.93 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .